Today we’re faced with a deadly coronavirus. It has paralyzed Italy and appears to be spreading rapidly in the United States. Conservative estimates place its death rate at one in a hundred, that’s ten times the mortality of the flu. If you were afraid of the measles epidemic last year then you should be afraid of the corona virus. If you weren’t afraid of the measles outbreak, you should still afraid of the Coronavirus. The measles, like chicken pox can give you spots. The Coronavirus can kill you and use you as a vector to kill those you love most (like your more vulnerable parents).
I’ve seen a consensus among all of the smart people I hold in deference, that the Coronavirus must be respected. These experts are emphatic about quarantine. They recommend isolating oneself from society and if exiting ones residence, exercising extreme caution in the form of social distancing and extreme sanitation.
I see the Coronavirus impact as a toss-up. If enough precautionary measures are taken and enough test kits produced in time, the epidemic will be isolated and neutralized. If too much time is wasted, we’ll hit an Italy-type situation where the entire medical system is overrun. The death and economic toll will be catastrophic. Since currently in the United States we are testing only a small minority of the symptomatic, we don’t know how many people are infected and how much time is left till the system explodes. Self-quarantining is the only effective strategy to protect you and your family.
But self-quarantining and isolation come with extreme drawbacks. It’s hard for anyone to be an island and you may need to hunker down for 4-6 weeks. Even if you prep-out with supplies do you think you’ll really be prepared? What’s going to happen when you go stir crazy? What will your children do without friends to play with?
I propose that your best scenario is to quarantine, but with friends. Make a Quarantine Circle. You never heard of it! Well, that makes sense since I invented this idea. So please allow me to explain…
A quarantine circle is when you make a deal with 2-5 friends to quarantine at the same level, sharing the same level of risk. Here is what it looks like.
Choose two friends who share the same level of concern you do. Make a set of protocols and a pact to follow them. For example, you might agree not to shake hands with anyone and to avoid any unnecessary social contact. Picking up emergency supplies and filling up your car with gas may be permitted. On the other hand, you may decide that gas masks must be worn when checking your mailbox. Find a compromise that keeps everyone safe and comfortable.
Once you’ve made the pact, you can spend as much time with your friends as you’d like. Your children can play together and drool on each other. Instead of being alone facing a scary and uncertain rule, you have a small community and support and friendship.
What’s really effective about this approach is that you’ll have a similar level of risk to if you are hunkered down, alone, in your basement. If your friend has the same degree of isolation as you do, you are effectively similarly protected. As long as the virus doesn’t enter your Quarantine Circle you can mingle with your friends as much as you’d like. There is no need to worry about washing your hands obsessively. There is no need to ask “am I standing six feet away from my friend?” You’re in the same boat together. As a world we’re going through a crises. In times like this it’s helpful to have friends.
Postscript – One interesting aspect of a quarantine circle is that you can agree to take similar risks together. For example, let’s say you want to go shopping. You can go shopping together. If you want to pray, go to the same house of worship and sit next to each other. If a sick man coughs in your direction, you’ll both get infected. If not, you’re both safe. The key is to shop in the same store at the same time and to pray in the same house of worship while sitting together.
